Publications

The Centre has a regular discussion paper series dedicated to academic research, as well as a special paper series focused on policy analysis. In addition, affiliated researchers publish a variety of books, reports and opinion pieces.

Special Papers
Jan 2020
SP 17
Constantine Dzhabarov and Bill Ziemba
The period May 1 to the turn of the month of November (-6 trading day of October) has historically produced negligible returns. The rest of the year (late October to the end of April) has essentially all the year's gains. We show that there is a...
Discussion Papers
Jan 2020
DP 93
We propose a novel, and simple, Bayesian estimation and model selection procedure for crosssectional asset pricing. Our approach, that allows for both tradable and non-tradable factors, and is applicable to high dimensional cases, has several...
Discussion Papers
Jan 2020
DP 92
Consumption dynamics are hard to measure accurately in the data, yet they are the crucial ingredient of macro-finance asset pricing models. The central insight of these models is that, in equilibrium, both consumption and returns are largely driven...
Opinion Pieces
Jan 2020
European banks have been criticised for holding too much domestic government debt during the recent euro area crisis, intensifying the doom loop between sovereign and bank credit risks. This column deviates from previous research that focused on '...
Opinion Pieces
Dec 2019
Given that China is a strategic and economic rival to the US, the Trump administration’s framework for US-China trade makes far more sense than one that focuses on economic benefits alone.
Opinion Pieces
Dec 2019
Financial institutions are increasingly outsourcing information technology to the cloud, motivated by efficiency, security, and cost. This column argues that the consequence is likely to be short- and medium-term stability at the cost of the...
Discussion Papers
Nov 2019
DP 91
Carmen Camacho and Yu Sun
Under the threat of earthquakes, long-term policy makers need tools to optimally decide on the economic trajectories that will maximize the society welfare. Tools should be flexible and account for the consequences of earthquakes, incorporating the...
Opinion Pieces
Aug 2019
The type of risk we most care about is long-term, what happens over years or decades, but we tend to manage that risk over short periods. This column argues that the dissonance of risk is that we measure and manage what we don't care about and...
Opinion Pieces
Aug 2019
As central banks accumulate ever more job functions, their reputation risk increases. This column offers a cautionary tale from Iceland where, after the central bank was put in charge of capital controls, it was subject to severe attacks because of...
Special Papers
Jul 2019
SP 16
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing how the financial system is operated, taking over core functions because of cost savings and operational efficiencies. AI will assist both risk managers and microprudential authorities. It meanwhile...

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