CEPS/ECMI Policy Brief – Why finalizing Basel III is good for the European banking sector
Basel III is an internationally agreed set of measures to strengthen the regulation, supervision and risk management of banks. Finalising the 2017...
SUERF Policy Brief – The way forward for EU-wide stress tests
EU-wide stress tests have constituted a very useful supervisory tool for increasing the resilience of the EU banking sector. This policy brief claims...
Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment
The Economic Journal, 131(693), 2763–2796
Extrapolative Bubbles and Trading Volume
We propose an extrapolative model of bubbles to explain the sharp rise in prices and volume observed in historical financial bubbles. The model...
The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934
This paper investigates the role of sentiment in the US macro economy from 1920 to 1934. We use 2.4 million digitized articles from the Wall St...
Stake-holder Firms and the Reform of Local Public Finance in China
Since 1978 China has developed strongly using a particular form of capitalism which has relied upon close relations between private enterprise and the...
Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment
We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending...
Moral hazard, the fear of the markets, and how central banks responded to Covid-19
While the direct economic consequences of Covid-19 have been significant, the impact on the financial markets has been more nuanced. This column uses...
Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?
Journal of Public Economics, Volume 193, 2021,104343.
Options-based systemic risk, financial distress, and macroeconomic downturns
In this study, we propose an implied forward-looking measure for systemic risk that employs the information from put option prices, the Systemic...
Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany
The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank...
Vaccine challenges
Last week brought welcome news about the apparent effectiveness of a potential Covid-19 vaccine. While the challenges of manufacturing and...
Financial policymaking after crises: Public versus private interest
Financial crises invariably lead governments to intervene in one way or another, whether to ease the damage to middle-class voters, to respond to the...
Revenge of the Experts: Will COVID-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science?
It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of scientific research and expertise...
Domestic Banks As Lightning Rods? Home Bias and Information during the Eurozone Crisis
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 52, 2020,12744.