Publications

The Centre has a regular discussion paper series dedicated to academic research, as well as a special paper series focused on policy analysis. In addition, affiliated researchers publish a variety of books, reports and opinion pieces.

Discussion Papers
Nov 2019
DP 91
Carmen Camacho and Yu Sun
Under the threat of earthquakes, long-term policy makers need tools to optimally decide on the economic trajectories that will maximize the society welfare. Tools should be flexible and account for the consequences of earthquakes, incorporating the...
Discussion Papers
Jul 2019
DP 90
Orkun Saka, Nauro Campos, Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji and Angelo Martelli
Financial crisis can trigger policy reversals, i.e. they can lead to a process of reregulation of financial markets. Using a recent comprehensive dataset on financial liberalization across 94 countries for the period between 1973 and 2015, we...
Discussion Papers
Jun 2019
DP 87
We derive the optimal underwriting method and the quantitative IPO pricing rule that this method implies in a market with informational frictions consisting of fully rational banks, issuers, and investors. In an efficient IPO market, an issuer's...
Discussion Papers
Apr 2019
DP 89
Amanah Ramadiah, Fabio Caccioli and Daniel Fricke
Financial networks are an important source of systemic risk, but often only partial network information is available. In this paper, we use data on bank-firm credit relationships in Japan and conduct a horse race between different network...
Discussion Papers
Mar 2019
DP 88
Marco Cipriani, Antonio Guarino and Andreas Uthemann
We develop a new methodology to estimate the impact of a financial transaction tax (FTT) on informational efficiency, liquidity and volatility. In our sequential trading model there are price elastic noise traders and traders with private...
Discussion Papers
Nov 2018
DP 86
Cryptocurrencies promise to replace fiat money with private money whose integrity is underpinned by algorithms, not government guarantees. While the technology is elegant, the success and failure of cryptocurrencies in the competition with fiat will...
Discussion Papers
Oct 2018
DP 85
Çağatay Bircan and Orkun Saka
We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province. There is considerable...
Discussion Papers
Sep 2018
DP 84
European banks have been criticized for holding excessive domestic government debt during economic downturns, which may have intensified the diabolic loop between sovereign and bank credit risks. By using a novel bank-level dataset covering the...
Discussion Papers
Sep 2018
DP 83
Toni Ahnert, Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai and James Chapman
We model asset encumbrance by banks subject to rollover risk and study the consequences for fragility, funding costs, and prudential regulation. A bank's privately optimal encumbrance choice balances the benefit of expanding profitable yet illiquid...
Discussion Papers
Sep 2018
DP 82
Sebastien Lleo and Bill Ziemba
Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly for use on mature financial markets. In this paper, we investigate whether traditional crash...

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