A Tale of Two Indexes: Predicting Equity Market Downturns in China
Predicting stock market crashes is a focus of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Several prediction models have been developed, mostly...
Skills Diversity in Unity
At any point in time, skills gaps, mismatches, and shortages arise because of an imperfect correspondence between the singular sets of skills required...
Trend Growth Durations & Shifts
Policymakers and investors often conceptualize trend growth as simply a medium/long term average growth rate. In practice, these averages are usually...
Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: Implications for QE
Despite the partial realignment of European long-term government bonds after the crisis in 2012, there has been some renewed divergence in yields in...
Brexit and systemic risk
Brexit is likely to cause considerable disruption for financial markets. Some worry that it may also increase systemic risk. This column revisits the...
The STEM Requirements of "Non-STEM" Jobs: Evidence from UK Online Vacancy Postings and Implications for Skills & Knowledge Shortages
Do employers in "non-STEM" occupations (e.g. Graphic Designers, Economists) seek to hire STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics)...
Pipeline Risk in Leveraged Loan Syndication
Leveraged term loans are typically arranged by banks but distributed to institutional investors. Using novel data, we find that to elicit investors’...
The Optimal Consumption Function in a Brownian Model of Accumulation. Part C: A Dynamical System Formulation
This Paper continues the study of the Optimal Consumption Function in a Brownian Model of Accumulation, see Part A [2001] and Part B [2014]; a...
Don’t Stop Me Now: The Impact of Credit Market Fragmentation on Firms’ Financing Constraints
This paper investigates how the withdrawal of banks from their cross-border business impacted the borrowing costs of European firms since the crisis...
Econometric Modeling of Systemic Risk: Going Beyond Pairwise Comparison and Allowing for Nonlinearity
Financial instability and its destructive effects on the economy can lead to financial crises due to its contagion or spillover effects to other parts...
External Financial Dependence and Firms’ Crisis Performance across Europe
Economic research has often relied on a measure of external financial dependence that is constructed using U.S. data and applied to other countries...
Does it Pay to Buy the Pot in the Canadian 6/49 Lotto: Implications for Lottery Design
The Canadian 6/49 Lotto©, despite its unusual payout structure, is one of the few government sponsored lotteries that has the potential for a...
Monetary Easing and Financial Instability
We study optimal monetary policy in the presence of financial stability concerns. We build a model in which monetary easing can lower the cost of...
Why macropru can end up being procyclical
Discretionary macroprudential policies aim to be countercyclical by adjusting risk-taking across the financial cycle. This column argues that the...