Network Risk and key Players: A Structural Analysis of Interbank Liquidity
We model banks’ liquidity holding decision as a simultaneous game on an interbank borrowing network. We show that at the Nash equilibrium, the...
Networked Default: Public Debt, Trade Embeddedness, and Partisan Survival in Democracies since 1870
Sovereign default is often associated with the downfall of incumbent governments in democratic polities. Existing scholarship directs attention to the...
Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world
We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting...
Land and Stock Bubbles, Crashes and Exit Strategies in Japan Circa 1990 and in 2013
We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its -48% crash in 1990 is...
Does the Bond-Stock Earning Yield Differential Model Predict Equity Market Corrections Better Than High P/E Models?
In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main respects. First, we relate explicitly crash prediction measures and...
The Determinants of Systemic Importance
This paper empirically analyses the determinants of banks’ systemic importance. With applying a novel measure on the systemic importance to US bank...
The Concept of Systemic Risk
The aim of the study is to analyze the concept of systemic risk. The study reviews a multitude of systemic risk definitions in the literature. In...
Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization
This paper discusses the role of risk communication in macroprudential oversight and of visualization in risk communication. Beyond the soar in data...
Bitcoin and the PPP Puzzle
This paper approaches the PPP puzzle by using the Bitcoin/US Dollar exchange rate. The use of the virtual currency as macroeconomic laboratory allows...
Optimal Capital Growth with Convex Shortfall Penalties
The optimal capital growth strategy or Kelly strategy, has many desirable properties such as maximizing the asympotic long run growth of capital...
How Insurers Differ from Banks: A Primer on Systemic Regulation
This paper aims at providing a conceptual distinction between banking and insurance with regard to systemic regulation. It discusses key differences...
Custody Chains and Remoteness: Disconnecting Investors from Issuers
This paper shows that the current market infrastructure systemically prevents investors, both shareholders and bondholders, from exercising their...
Moral Hazard and Debt Maturity
We present a model of the maturity of a bank’s uninsured debt. The bank borrows funds and chooses afterwards the riskiness of its assets. This moral...
Model risk and the implications for risk management, macroprudential policy, and financial regulations
Risk forecasting is central to financial regulations, risk management, and macroprudential policy. This column raises concerns about the reliance on...
How to lose money in derivatives: examples from hedge funds and bank trading departments
What makes futures hedge funds fail? The common ingredient is over betting and not being diversified in some bad scenarios that can lead to disaster...
