Time inconsistency in recent monetary policy
A decade of near-zero, and even negative, interest rates in advanced economies has both encouraged the continued accumulation of debt and a search for...
Who Bears Risk in China’s Non-financial Enterprise Debt?
This paper analyses of how risk is allocated in China’s markets for debt issued by non-financial enterprises. Compared to other major corporate bond...
Firms in Financial Distress
We use simple accounting measures to estimate the share of private manufacturing firms in financial distress under a hypothetical scenario of losing...
Coronavirus panic fuels a surge in cash demand
Despite regular reports in the media over the past decade on the imminent death of cash amid rapid innovation in payment technologies, cash in...
Finance and politics: New insights
A rapidly expanding literature has shown the importance of political economy factors for legislative and regulatory actions in the financial sector...
Firms in Financial Distress
We use simple accounting measures to estimate the share of private manufacturing firms in financial distress under a hypothetical scenario of losing...
The neighbourhood effect of reforms after crises
Countries reform when their neighbours have reformed too, especially in the aftermath of economic crises. This column examines business regulatory...
Financial Volatility and Economic Growth, 1870–2016
We investigate the causal impact of financial risk on economic growth, using a panel spanning 150 years and 74 countries. Persistent low risk...
Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data
During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation...
Higher-Order Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service
We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism that operates in the over-the-counter market for financial derivatives to reduce...
The political scar of epidemics
What will be the political legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic? This column uses data from the 2006-2018 Gallup World Polls to show that epidemic exposure...
The Political Scar of Epidemics
What will be the political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25...
Inflation after the pandemic: Theory and practice
The correlation between monetary growth and inflation has an historic pedigree as long as your arm. This column argues that rejecting the likelihood...
Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish trust in science?
It is argued that COVID-19 will reverse the ongoing trend of challenging the value of science and the integrity of scientists. This column shows that...
COVID-19: A Double Whammy of Financial and Economic Sudden Stops for Emerging Economies
While it is too early to say how the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will ultimately affect emerging market economies (EMs), experience...
Revenge of the Experts: Will COVID-19 Renew or Diminish Public Trust in Science?
An effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is sometimes suggested, will be to reverse the secular trend toward questioning the value of scientific...
