Survival of Firms during Economic Crisis
We estimate the survival time of nearly 7,000 firms in a dozen of high-income and middle-income countries in a scenario of extreme economic distress...
The need to issue long-dated gilts
The COVID-19 crisis presents a multi-faceted challenge to policymakers. A combination of declining commodity prices, the rise in unemployment, and...
Survival of firms in developing economies during economic crisis
With lockdown measures in place worldwide, cash-flow represents a significant concern for firms across multiple sectors. This chapter estimates the...
Volatility, dark trading and market quality: evidence from the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic-driven market volatility
We exploit the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets and regulatory restrictions on dark trading to investigate how volatility...
It’s time for a recovery plan
With businesses fast running out of cash, governments need to roll out a loan program that builds on the recently-created job retention scheme, write...
Synthetic Forecasting Method for COVID-19: Applications to UK and Turkey
Synthetic control method (SCM) is generally used for producing counterfactual scenarios in policy evaluations. In the light and urgency of the recent...
When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?
We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European CDC...
Future imperfect after coronavirus
The authorities, like most of the rest of us, have been caught short by the sudden advent of the coronavirus pandemic, and are rightly rushing to...
The coronavirus crisis is no 2008
Many comparisons have been made between the coronavirus crisis and the global systemic crisis in 2008. This column argues that seen through the lens...
Artificial intelligence as a central banker
Artificial intelligence, such as the Bank of England Bot, is set to take over an increasing number of central bank functions. This column argues that...
Loan Insurance, Market Liquidity, and Lending Standards
We examine loan insurance when lenders can screen at origination, learn loan quality over time, and can sell loans in secondary markets. Loan...
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models
We propose a novel, and simple, Bayesian estimation and model selection procedure for crosssectional asset pricing. Our approach, that allows for both...
Consumption in Asset Returns
Consumption dynamics are hard to measure accurately in the data, yet they are the crucial ingredient of macro-finance asset pricing models. The...
Sell in May and Go Away in the Equity Index Futures Markets, 1993-2019
The period May 1 to the turn of the month of November (-6 trading day of October) has historically produced negligible returns. The rest of the year...
Banks and government bonds: A love story
European banks have been criticised for holding too much domestic government debt during the recent euro area crisis, intensifying the doom loop...
Dollars or Pence? Choosing a framework for US-China trade
Given that China is a strategic and economic rival to the US, the Trump administration’s framework for US-China trade makes far more sense than one...
